Shota Imanaga Cy Young projections: Exploring Cubs rookie's chances at winning top pitching honor

Shota Imanaga's MLB career is off to a blistering start. He was a bit of an afterthought in free agency behind several other superstars, but he's arguably outplayed almost every NL pitcher. He looks excellent, and Rookie of the Year and Cy Young are awards he has his sights set on.

Imanaga has pitched with a sub-1.00 ERA, the only qualified starter to do that in 2024. His xERA is a bit higher at 2.61, but that's still a great metric. His 1.9 fWAR is second in MLB and first in the NL. He's been brilliant. Can he win Cy Young in his first season?

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Shota Imanaga's Cy Young candidacy

Currently, Shota Imanaga is not the favorite to win Cy Young. That would be Philadelphia Phillies superstar Zack Wheeler. He is, per Vegas Insider, +330 to win the award. He's also been a dominant force for years, so it's difficult to bet against him.

However, the Chicago Cubs ace is right behind. Imanaga is +500 to win, so he's hardly a long shot at this stage. Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease are both +700, and Ranger Suarez is right behind at +850. All of them could easily win the award.

There are several other candidates that Imanaga will have to contend with. Right now, Wheeler, Cease and Suarez are pitching as well as Imanaga. They have similar metrics and should be Cy Young contenders all year long.

It's also impossible to count out Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who will compete with Imanaga for Rookie of the Year, too), Chris Sale and Logan Webb. There are a lot of good pitchers in the National League.

Shota Imanaga has been excellent in 2024

What Imanaga does have going for him is experience. Unlike most rookies, he has pitching experience in Japan, which will help him adapt.

He is in the 100th percentile for pitching run value and fastball run value. The pitcher is also in the 89th percentile for offspeed run value. Imanaga is in the 92nd percentile for expected ERA.

He's also among the best in whiff percentage, chase percentage and walk percentage. He throws strikes that are hard to hit, which make him a true Cy Young contender.